Ballerina Box Office Projections: Can Ana de Armas’ John Wick Spinoff Dance to a $100M Finish?

Lionsgate’s From the World of John Wick: Ballerina has hit theaters with a vengeance, starring Ana de Armas as the deadly assassin Eve. Early box office figures from Box Office Mojo show a domestic haul of $24,501,663 (48.5%) and an international take of $26,000,000 (51.5%), totaling $50,501,663 worldwide.

But what does the future hold for this action-packed spinoff? In this breakdown and analysis, we dive into the Ballerina's box office projections, exploring trends, audience reception, and market factors to predict whether this film can twirl its way to a $100 million finish by the end of its theatrical run.

What Are the Current Box Office Numbers for Ballerina?

As of June 10, 2025, Box Office Mojo reports Ballerina has grossed $24,501,663 domestically, accounting for 48.5% of its total earnings. Internationally, the film has pulled in $26,000,000, making up 51.5% of the worldwide total of $50,501,663.

This opening weekend performance, while solid, fell short of industry projections, which estimated a domestic debut between $27 million and $31 million. Despite this, the film’s $25 million domestic haul marks the fourth-biggest opening weekend in the John Wick franchise, surpassing the original 2014 film’s debut.

Globally, the $51 million start is a promising launch for a film with a reported budget of $90 million.

How Does Audience Reception Impact Ballerina Box Office Projections?

Audience response is a key driver of box office longevity. Ballerina has danced into fans’ hearts, earning a stellar 94% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, complemented by a 75% “certified fresh” critics’ rating.

This positive word-of-mouth could fuel sustained ticket sales, especially as fans of the John Wick series rally behind Ana de Armas’ compelling performance and Keanu Reeves’ cameo appearance.

Strong audience approval often leads to repeat viewings and recommendations, which could push Ballerina past initial projections. However, competition from heavyweights like Disney’s Lilo & Stitch, which grossed $32.5 million domestically in its third weekend, poses a challenge. Can Ballerina maintain momentum in a crowded market?

What Role Does the John Wick Franchise Play in Ballerina’s Potential?

The John Wick franchise has a loyal fanbase and a track record of box office success. While the original John Wick (2014) opened to a modest $14 million, it ultimately grossed $88.8 million worldwide, thanks to strong word-of-mouth and repeat business.

Later entries, like John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum ($328 million worldwide) and John Wick: Chapter 4 ($440 million worldwide), saw exponential growth.

Ballerina, set between the events of these two films, benefits from the franchise’s growing popularity and the star power of Ana de Armas, who has proven her draw in hits like Knives Out and No Time to Die. If the film follows the franchise’s trend of long legs, its box office projections could climb significantly.

How Will Competition and Market Dynamics Affect Ballerina’s Run?

The summer 2025 box office is a battleground, with Lilo & Stitch dominating at $32.5 million in its third weekend and a global cume nearing $800 million. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning also remains a contender, adding $15 million in its third frame. Ballerina’s $25 million domestic debut landed it in second place, but its ability to hold screens and attract audiences over the coming weeks will be critical.

Historical trends suggest action films, especially female-led ones like Furiosa ($26.3 million opening) and Alita: Battle Angel ($28.5 million opening), often stabilize after modest starts if word-of-mouth is strong. With a budget of $90 million, Ballerina needs to reach approximately $180 million worldwide to break even, factoring in marketing costs and theater splits.

What Are the Ballerina Box Office Projections for the End of Its Run?

Predicting the final tally requires analyzing multipliers— the ratio of total gross to opening weekend. John Wick films typically have strong multipliers, with the first film achieving a 6.3x domestic multiplier ($88.8 million total vs. $14 million opening).

If Ballerina follows a conservative 3.5x to 4x domestic multiplier, its U.S. haul could range from $85 million to $100 million.

Internationally, the film’s 51.5% share of the global box office suggests strong overseas appeal. A similar 3.5x to 4x multiplier on its $26 million international start could yield $91 million to $104 million. Combining these, Ballerina box office projections point to a worldwide total of $176 million to $204 million.

However, positive buzz and a lack of direct action competitors in the coming weeks could push it higher, potentially nearing or exceeding $200 million if it sustains momentum. Conversely, a crowded summer slate and a slow post-opening drop-off (e.g., 47% like Lilo & Stitch) could limit it to the lower end.

Some Closing Thoughts:

Can Ballerina dance its way to a $100 million domestic finish and a $200 million worldwide haul? Early signs are promising, with $50,501,663 already in the bank and strong audience approval.

While Ballerina box office projections suggest a final global total between $176 million and $204 million, the film’s fate hinges on its ability to stand out in a competitive summer market and leverage the John Wick legacy.

With Ana de Armas leading the charge and positive reviews in its favor, Ballerina has the potential to spin past expectations—or at least break even on its $90 million budget.

Stay tuned to this space for updates as this assassin’s journey unfolds!