Can Brad Pitt’s F1 Race to Box Office Glory? Unraveling F1 Movie Box Office Tracking Numbers

Brad Pitt’s F1, an adrenaline-pumping Formula One drama directed by Joseph Kosinski, is speeding toward its June 27, 2025, release. As anticipation builds, the F1 movie box office tracking numbers are generating buzz, with early projections estimating a $30–$40 million domestic opening weekend.

Backed by a $200 million budget, a star-studded cast, and Lewis Hamilton’s producing expertise, the film aims to capture the thrill of F1 racing. But will it outpace competitors like M3GAN 2.0 and set a new benchmark for racing films? Let’s break down the numbers and factors shaping its opening weekend.

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Highlights of F1’s Box Office Tracking

• Projected Domestic Opening: $30–$40 million for June 27–29, 2025.

• Budget: $200 million net, with additional marketing costs.

• Key Demographics: Strong appeal among men over 25, followed by women over 25.

• Competition: Faces M3GAN 2.0 ($30M+ projected) and Jurassic World: Rebirth (July 2).

• International Potential: Expected to outperform domestically due to F1’s global popularity.

• IMAX Appeal: Two-week IMAX run to boost premium ticket sales.

• Tracking Comparison: Outpacing Ford v. Ferrari’s $31.4M opening in unaided awareness.

What Are the Opening Weekend Projections for F1?

Early box office tracking for F1 projects a domestic debut of $30–$40 million, with some sources leaning toward $35 million and optimistic estimates reaching $40 million. This aligns with the $31.4 million opening of Ford v. Ferrari (2019), which F1 is outperforming in unaided awareness, where audiences mention the film unprompted.

The film’s appeal is strongest among men over 25, followed by women over 25 and men under 25, signaling a broad but male-skewing audience.

The $200 million budget (down from initial $300 million reports) requires a global gross of ~$400–$450 million to break even, factoring in marketing.

A $40 million domestic start would be a solid launch, but F1’s real strength lies overseas, where Formula One enjoys a massive following. Warner Bros.’ global distribution and filming at iconic tracks like Silverstone and Monaco enhance its international draw.

How Does Competition Impact F1’s Opening?

F1 faces a crowded June 27–29 weekend, with M3GAN 2.0 tracking for a similar $30 million-plus debut. The horror sequel targets a younger, female-leaning audience, potentially splitting the market.

However, F1’s IMAX and premium format screenings could give it an edge, as action fans prioritize large-screen experiences. Posts on X note strong early buzz, with one calling it a “high-octane thrill ride.”

The following week, Jurassic World: Rebirth opens on July 2, likely dominating IMAX screens and capping F1’s premium format run at two weeks. This makes a strong opening critical, as F1 must maximize its first weekend before blockbuster competition intensifies. Still, its authentic racing sequences, filmed during actual F1 races, could sustain word-of-mouth.

Why Is F1 Poised for a Strong Debut?

Several factors bolster F1’s box office potential. Brad Pitt’s star power, fresh off an Oscar for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, remains a draw, despite mixed recent theatrical results like Babylon ($66M globally).

Director Joseph Kosinski’s Top Gun: Maverick ($1.5B worldwide) proves his knack for spectacle, and F1’s innovative camera systems promise unmatched racing realism.

Lewis Hamilton’s involvement as a producer adds credibility, with the seven-time champion ensuring authenticity. The film’s cast, including Javier Bardem and Damson Idris, broadens its appeal, while filming at real F1 races with all 10 teams involved creates a unique selling point.

Analysts like Alicia Reese predict a domestic total of $130 million or more, citing F1’s cultural buzz post-Drive to Survive.

What Challenges Could Hinder F1’s Performance?

Despite optimism, F1 faces risks. Its $200 million budget is high for a non-franchise film, and racing movies historically struggle—Driven (2001) and Bobby Deerfield (1977) flopped. Some X posts express skepticism, with one calling it a potential “bomb” due to its fictional story versus Ford v. Ferrari’s real-life drama.

The film’s cavalier depiction of crashes may also alienate purist F1 fans, as modern racing prioritizes safety.

Additionally, F1 lacks the nostalgia of Top Gun: Maverick, which grossed $126.7 million in its opening weekend. Pitt’s highest-grossing film, World War Z ($540M), suggests he’s not a guaranteed billion-dollar draw, and U.S. F1 popularity trails Europe’s.

A $30 million opening would be respectable but below expectations for a film of this scale.

Will F1 Cross the Finish Line as a Hit?

F1’s box office tracking suggests a competitive $30–$40 million domestic opening, with international markets likely doubling that figure.

Its premium format appeal, authentic racing footage, and Pitt’s charisma position it to outrun M3GAN 2.0 and hold strong against Jurassic World: Rebirth.

Some Closing Thoughts:

While it won’t match Top Gun: Maverick’s $1.5 billion, a global gross of $400–$500 million is within reach, ensuring profitability.

As F1 races into theaters, its success hinges on delivering a visceral experience that captivates both F1 fans and casual moviegoers.

Will Pitt and Kosinski steer this high-stakes drama to box office victory? Share your predictions for F1’s opening weekend in the comments!