Can Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning Outshine Disney’s Lilo & Stitch at the Box Office?

Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning is gearing up for a high-stakes Memorial Day weekend showdown against Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch remake, set to release on May 23, 2025. With a massive $300–$400 million production budget and the shadow of its predecessor Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning’s underwhelming $571 million global gross, Tom Cruise’s eighth outing as Ethan Hunt faces a tough mission.

Meanwhile, Lilo & Stitch is projected to dominate with a $120–$160 million domestic opening, fueled by nostalgia and family appeal. This article explores whether Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning can defy the odds and emerge as a box office hit.

What Are the Box Office Projections for Both Films?

Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning is tracking for a $75–$85 million domestic opening over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, with global estimates at $210 million. Disney’s Lilo & Stitch, however, is poised to lead with $120–$160 million domestically and a global debut of $275 million, potentially ranking among Disney’s top live-action remake openings like The Lion King ($191 million).

The contrasting demographics—families for Lilo & Stitch and action fans, particularly men and women over 25, for Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning—suggest a Barbenheimer-like counterprogramming opportunity. Posts on X highlight excitement for both, with some calling it “The Final Stitchening,” indicating potential for a record-breaking combined $485 million global opening.

How Does Dead Reckoning’s Performance Impact Expectations?

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning grossed $571 million worldwide against a $291 million budget, considered a disappointment after losing IMAX screens to Oppenheimer and Barbie. This underperformance, coupled with Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning’s ballooned $300–$400 million budget, raises the stakes.

To break even, the film likely needs over $1 billion globally, a feat only Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($791 million) has approached in the franchise.

However, early reactions on X praise Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning as a “thrilling, emotional” finale, suggesting stronger word-of-mouth than its predecessor. The decision to drop “Part Two” from the title and market it as the franchise’s conclusion could draw fans eager for closure.

Why Is Lilo & Stitch a Formidable Opponent?

Disney’s Lilo & Stitch benefits from a $100 million production budget, far leaner than Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning’s, and a marketing push capitalizing on Stitch’s pop-culture resurgence.

Presales are outpacing A Minecraft Movie and rivaling The Lion King (2019), with strong appeal among women under 25 and Hispanic audiences.

The film’s nostalgic pull, innovative marketing (like Stitch popcorn buckets), and family-friendly vibe position it for a massive opening, potentially hitting $150 million domestically.

Unlike Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning, which targets older action fans, Lilo & Stitch’s four-quadrant appeal could sustain longer legs, especially with no major family films competing until later in the summer.

Can Mission Impossible Overcome Its Challenges?

Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning boasts strengths that could fuel a comeback. Tom Cruise’s star power, a Cannes premiere, and jaw-dropping stunts (like a biplane sequence) are generating buzz. The franchise’s international draw, particularly in markets like Japan and the UK, could push its global gross past Dead Reckoning’s $120.8 million overseas opening.

However, its hefty budget and competition from Lilo & Stitch pose risks. Some X posts speculate Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning may underperform domestically due to Lilo & Stitch’s broader appeal, with projections favoring Disney. A three-week IMAX window offers an edge, but the film needs stellar reviews and repeat viewings to hit the $800 million–$1 billion needed for success.

What Factors Could Make It a Hit?

For Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning to triumph, it must leverage its action spectacle and emotional stakes as the franchise’s finale. Early reactions call it a “cinematic exercise in increasing stakes,” with a 90%+ Rotten Tomatoes score streak to maintain. Unlike Dead Reckoning, it faces no Barbenheimer-level competition, and its Memorial Day slot offers a three-week runway before June releases.

Lilo & Stitch may win the opening weekend, but Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning’s global appeal and Cruise’s theatrical draw could drive a strong multiplier, similar to Top Gun: Maverick’s $160.5 million Memorial Day record. If it resonates like Fallout, it could outpace projections and reclaim the franchise’s box office glory.

Will Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning Succeed?

Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning faces a daunting mission against Lilo & Stitch’s nostalgic juggernaut and its own costly budget. While Lilo & Stitch is poised to dominate domestically, Cruise’s global appeal and the film’s action-packed finale could still make it a hit, potentially nearing $800 million worldwide.

The Memorial Day showdown could break records, with both films fueling a historic $200 million+ domestic weekend.

Head to theaters May 23 to see if Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning delivers the ultimate Ethan Hunt adventure. Share your predictions on X—can Cruise outrun Stitch?