Elio's Box Office Projections: Can Pixar’s Cosmic Adventure Soar in 2025?

Elio's box office projections are generating buzz as Disney and Pixar gear up for the June 20, 2025, release of their original animated film, Elio.

This sci-fi adventure, centered on a young boy mistaken for Earth’s ambassador in an intergalactic organization, faces a challenging summer box office.

Early estimates suggest a domestic opening weekend of $20M-$35M, potentially marking one of Pixar’s lowest debuts. With a hefty budget and stiff competition, can Elio find its footing? Here’s everything we know about its box office outlook.

What Are the Current Box Office Projections for Elio?

Early tracking for Elio’s box office projections points to a domestic opening weekend of $20M-$35M, with global estimates around $50M. Sources like Box Office Theory and The Hollywood Reporter indicate a conservative $27M-$34M domestic start, while some, like Deadline, peg it as low as $20M+.

These figures place Elio near Pixar’s Elemental ($29.6M domestic opening in 2023), which holds the studio’s second-lowest debut, only behind Toy Story’s $29.1M (unadjusted for inflation).

The film’s global start of ~$50M includes an estimated $30M from international markets. However, projections remain fluid, with some optimistic forecasts reaching $35M-$45M domestically if buzz grows closer to release. Advance ticket sales are modest, hovering around $1M, comparable to Elemental’s pre-release performance.

Why Are Elio’s Box Office Projections So Modest?

Several factors contribute to Elio’s cautious box office projections. First, it’s an original story, lacking the built-in audience of Pixar’s sequels like Inside Out 2, which grossed $1.69B globally in 2024.

Original animated films have struggled recently, with Disney’s Wish and Strange World underperforming. Elio’s sci-fi premise, while unique, may not have the immediate draw of franchise films.

Second, Elio faces fierce competition. Universal’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon, expected to earn $40M+ in its second weekend, and Sony’s 28 Years Later, projected at $28M-$45M, will likely dominate the June 20-22 box office.

Disney’s own Lilo & Stitch remake, opening May 23, 2025, could saturate the family market beforehand.

Production challenges also play a role. Elio’s budget, reportedly $150M-$300M, reflects delays, a director change (Adrian Molina to Domee Shi and Madeline Sharafian), and a creative overhaul. These issues, coupled with a muted marketing push, have dampened pre-release hype.

Could Elio Defy Expectations Like Elemental Did?

Despite its soft opening projections, Elio has potential for a slow-burn success. Elemental, which opened to $29.6M domestically, leveraged strong word-of-mouth to gross $496M worldwide.

Elio’s early reviews are positive, with an 82%-85% Rotten Tomatoes score, praising its vibrant visuals and themes of self-esteem.

The film’s appeal to Hispanic and Latino families, a key demographic for Pixar’s Coco, could boost its performance, especially in markets like Mexico.

Its lack of direct animated competition until Smurfs (July 18) and The Bad Guys 2 (August 1) gives it room to leg out if audiences connect with its story.

However, Elio must overcome its high budget, with a break-even point estimated at $375M-$750M, depending on the final cost.

How Does Elio’s Budget Impact Its Box Office Needs?

Elio’s reported budget ranges from $150M (Deadline) to $300M (That Park Place), with marketing costs potentially pushing the total to $400M.

As a rule, films need to earn 2.5 times their production budget to break even, meaning Elio requires $375M-$750M globally.

This is a tall order given its projected $50M global start. For context, Onward (2020) opened to $39.1M domestically and grossed $141M worldwide, while Lightyear (2022) opened to $50.7M but ended at $226M globally—both considered disappointments.

Elio’s success hinges on strong holds and international appeal, particularly in Europe and Latin America.

What Role Does Pixar’s Track Record Play in Elio’s Outlook?

Pixar’s recent history is a mixed bag. Inside Out 2’s record-breaking $1.69B global haul in 2024 restored confidence in the studio, but original films have struggled.

Soul, Luca, and Turning Red went straight to Disney+ during the pandemic, diluting Pixar’s theatrical brand. Lightyear’s $226M global total was a flop, and Elemental’s $496M, while respectable, was modest for Pixar.

Elio marks Pixar’s third original theatrical release of the 2020s, following Onward and Elemental. Its directors, Domee Shi (Turning Red) and Madeline Sharafian (Burrow), bring fresh voices, but the studio’s reliance on Pete Docter’s leadership and Disney’s theatrical strategy will be tested.

Fans on X note Pixar’s challenge in marketing original stories, with some blaming Disney for prioritizing streaming over theaters.

Highlights of Elio’s Box Office Projections 

• Opening Weekend: $20M-$35M domestic, ~$50M global.

• Budget: Estimated $150M-$300M, with a break-even point of $375M-$750M.

• Competition: Faces How to Train Your Dragon ($40M+ second weekend) and 28 Years Later ($28M-$45M).

• Release Date: June 20, 2025, shifted to avoid Dragon clash.

• Cast: Yonas Kibreab (Elio), Zoe Saldaña (Aunt Olga), Jameela Jamil (Ambassador Questa).

• Reviews: 82%-85% on Rotten Tomatoes, praised for visuals and heart.

• Demographic Appeal: Strong potential with Hispanic and Latino audiences.

Some Closing Thoughts: Will Elio Shine or Fade at the Box Office?

Elio’s box office projections paint a cautious picture, with a modest $20M-$35M domestic opening and a challenging path to profitability.

Yet, Pixar’s history of defying odds with films like Elemental and the film’s early critical praise offer hope.

As Elio prepares to launch on June 20, 2025, its success will depend on word-of-mouth, family turnout, and Pixar’s ability to recapture its theatrical magic.

Will this cosmic adventure soar? Join the conversation on X and catch Elio in theaters to find out.