F1 Movie's Opening Weekend Projections: Will Brad Pitt’s Racing Epic Dominate the Box Office?

F1 Movie's Opening Weekend Projections are fueling speculation as Brad Pitt’s high-octane F1, directed by Joseph Kosinski, speeds toward its June 27, 2025, release. With a 78% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, a massive IMAX-driven theater rollout, and a prime summer release window, the film is poised for a strong debut.

However, competition from M3GAN 2.0 and upcoming blockbusters like Superman and Jurassic World Rebirth could challenge its staying power. Here’s a speculative breakdown and analysis of F1’s opening weekend potential, based on early reviews, release strategy, and market dynamics.

What Do Early Reviews Suggest for F1’s Box Office?

F1’s 78% Rotten Tomatoes score, based on 40 reviews, signals strong critical approval, with critics like Variety’s Clayton Davis calling it an “old school summer blockbuster” and TheWrap’s Drew Taylor praising its “high-speed splendor.”

Posts on X echo this enthusiasm, with @RottenTomatoes noting “electric” performances from Pitt and Damson Idris. Positive buzz, especially for its IMAX spectacle, suggests robust audience interest, particularly among F1 fans boosted by Drive to Survive.

However, some critiques of a “predictable” plot could temper word-of-mouth for general audiences. Historically, sports dramas like Ford v Ferrari (92%, $31.5M opening) benefited from strong reviews, but F1’s broader appeal and star power could push it higher.

How Does the Release Window Impact F1’s Prospects?

F1’s June 27, 2025, North American release (June 25 internationally) lands in the heart of summer, a prime slot for blockbusters. The film kicks off during the Austrian Grand Prix weekend, aligning with F1’s global fanbase and boosting promotional synergy.

Early IMAX screenings on June 23 in 400 theaters worldwide, expanded due to “overwhelming popularity,” indicate strong pre-sale demand. Unlike Top Gun: Maverick ($19.3M Thursday previews, $51.8M opening day), which faced minimal competition, F1 shares its debut with M3GAN 2.0, a horror sequel targeting younger audiences.

This split could fragment the box office, but F1’s PG-13 rating and broad appeal give it an edge for families and older viewers.

What Role Does Theater Release Size Play?

F1’s global theatrical rollout, including a significant IMAX footprint, is a major advantage. Warner Bros. Pictures’ distribution ensures wide exposure, with 400 IMAX screens for fan-first screenings and general showings across thousands of theaters.

Shot with IMAX cameras and featuring real F1 tracks, the film is marketed as a “must-see” big-screen experience, akin to Oppenheimer ($82M opening, boosted by IMAX). Posts on X highlight the film’s immersive sound and visuals, driving premium ticket sales.

With a reported $200–$300M budget, the film’s high production values justify premium pricing, potentially inflating per-ticket revenue. A wide release, possibly 3,500+ theaters in North America, aligns with blockbusters like Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning ($54.7M opening).

Which Competing Films Could Affect F1’s Performance?

F1 faces immediate competition from M3GAN 2.0, projected to open at $20–$30M, appealing to horror fans and younger demographics. In the following weeks, Superman (July 11, 2025) is tracking for a $100M+ debut, with strong pre-sales and DC’s fanbase.

Jurassic World Rebirth (July 2) and The Fantastic Four: First Steps (July 25) also loom, potentially capping F1’s legs. However, F1’s unique sports angle and lack of direct genre rivals in its opening week give it breathing room.

Unlike Barbie and Oppenheimer’s “Barbenheimer” synergy, F1 and M3GAN 2.0 lack crossover appeal, but F1’s global F1 fanbase and Lewis Hamilton’s involvement could drive international numbers.

What Are the Projected Opening Weekend Numbers?

Drawing from comps, F1’s opening weekend is projected at $35–$50M domestically. This accounts for:

• Strong Pre-Sales: Sold-out IMAX screenings and Fandango buzz suggest $8–$12M in Thursday previews, similar to Bullet Train ($11.3M previews, $30M opening).

• Critical Buzz: The 78% score and comparisons to Top Gun: Maverick ($160M domestic opening) fuel hype, though F1’s niche sport may limit it to Ford v Ferrari’s range.

• Star Power: Pitt’s draw, combined with Idris and Hamilton’s appeal, targets diverse audiences, potentially matching Rush’s global draw ($10M domestic opening, $90M worldwide).

• IMAX Premium: High ticket prices could boost revenue, akin to Dune: Part Two ($81M opening).

  
  

  Internationally, F1 could add $60–$80M, driven by F1’s European and Asian markets, for a global debut of $95–$130M. A $300M budget demands a $600M+ global total, requiring strong legs. Posts on X note a 156-minute runtime as a potential hurdle, but summer audiences may embrace the epic scope.

  
  

Could External Factors Shift the Outcome?

Several variables could sway F1’s performance. Positive word-of-mouth from F1 drivers like Max Verstappen, who attended a Monaco screening, could amplify fan turnout. Conversely, if M3GAN 2.0 overperforms or Superman’s early buzz overshadows F1, it may lose screens by week two.

The film’s soundtrack, featuring Doja Cat and Ed Sheeran, could boost younger audiences, while Hamilton’s promotion on X may drive global interest. A worst-case scenario—tepid audience scores or genre fatigue—might cap it at $25–$30M domestically, but current momentum favors the higher end.

Highlights of F1’s Box Office Potential  

• Opening Weekend Projection: $35–$50M domestic, $95–$130M global.

• Release Date: June 27, 2025 (US); June 25, 2025 (international).

• Tomatometer: 78% Fresh (40 reviews).

• Theater Count: 3,500+ theaters, 400 IMAX screens globally.

• Competition: M3GAN 2.0 (June 27), Jurassic World Rebirth (July 2), Superman (July 11).

• Key Draws: Brad Pitt, Lewis Hamilton, IMAX spectacle, real F1 footage.

• Runtime: 2 hours 35 minutes, PG-13.

Some Closing Thoughts: Will F1 Cross the Finish Line First?

F1 is gearing up for a turbo-charged opening, with strong reviews, a massive IMAX rollout, and a strategic summer release fueling $35–$50M domestic projections.

While M3GAN 2.0 and looming blockbusters like Superman pose challenges, Pitt’s star power, Hamilton’s authenticity, and Kosinski’s track record position F1 as a global contender.

Join the race on X to share your predictions and grab IMAX tickets for June 27, 2025. Will F1 speed to box office glory? The green flag is about to drop!