Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction: A Nostalgic Sequel Stumbles at the Start

The Freakier Friday box office prediction was met with high hopes, but the sequel to the 2003 hit Freaky Friday has landed with a bit of a thud.

Disney’s body-swap comedy, reuniting Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan, grossed $43.9 million worldwide during its opening weekend, with $28.6 million from domestic markets and $15.3 million from international territories, according to Box Office Mojo.

While these numbers aren’t disastrous, they signal an underperformance compared to expectations for a legacy sequel banking on nostalgia.

Let’s break down the opening weekend, explore why it fell short, and predict where the film’s theatrical run might end up.

Highlights:

• Opening Weekend Gross: $43.9 million worldwide ($28.6 million domestic, $15.3 million international).

• Production Budget: Approximately $45 million, nearly recouped in three days.

• Audience Reception: Strong with a 93% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and an “A” CinemaScore.

• Critical Response: Lukewarm, with a 73% Rotten Tomatoes score.

• Competition: Faced tough rivals like Weapons, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Superman, and Jurassic World Rebirth.

Why Did Freakier Friday Underperform on Opening Weekend?

Despite the star power of Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan, Freakier Friday opened to a modest $28.6 million domestically, landing at No. 2 behind the horror thriller Weapons, which earned $42.5 million.

Industry forecasts had pegged the film’s debut closer to $35-45 million domestically, with some predicting up to $50 million. The lower-than-expected turnout may stem from several factors.=

The body-swap comedy genre has lost some shine, with recent entries like The Change-Up and Family Switch failing to resonate. Nostalgia for the 2003 film, while strong among millennials, didn’t fully translate to younger audiences, with only 7% of ticket buyers being teens.

The film also faced fierce competition. Weapons, with its 95% Rotten Tomatoes score and A- CinemaScore, drew younger crowds and women under 25, overlapping slightly with Freakier Friday’s audience.

Meanwhile, blockbusters like The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($15.5 million in its third weekend), Superman ($331.2 million domestic total), and Jurassic World Rebirth (nearing $800 million globally) dominated theater screens, limiting showtimes and premium formats like IMAX.

How Are Reviews Impacting Its Performance?

Freakier Friday’s lukewarm critical reception hasn’t helped its case. With a 73% score on Rotten Tomatoes, critics have called it a fun but formulaic retread, lacking the fresh spark of the original.

Some reviews, like one from a major publication, criticized its costumes and predictable humor, though Jamie Lee Curtis defended the film, calling such critiques overly harsh. However, audiences are loving it, giving it a 93% audience score and an “A” CinemaScore, with parents awarding it a perfect 5/5 on PostTrak.

This strong word-of-mouth could fuel better-than-expected legs in the coming weeks, especially among families and nostalgic fans.

What’s the Competition Like in Theaters?

The box office landscape is crowded with heavy hitters. Weapons stole the spotlight with its mystery-driven horror appeal, while The Fantastic Four: First Steps continues to draw Marvel fans despite a 60% drop in its third weekend.

Superman remains a steady performer, closing in on Guardians of the Galaxy’s domestic total, and Jurassic World Rebirth is a global juggernaut. Upcoming releases like Nobody 2, Americana, and Highest 2 Lowest could further squeeze Freakier Friday’s screen count.

With schools resuming in many regions, family audiences may also dwindle, impacting weekday showings.

What’s the Box Office Outlook for the Theatrical Run?

The original Freaky Friday opened to $22.2 million domestically in 2003 but legged out to $110.2 million domestically and $160.8 million worldwide, thanks to strong word-of-mouth.

Freakier Friday, with its $45 million budget already nearly covered, is in a solid position to turn a profit if it follows a similar trajectory. Films typically need to earn 2.5 times their budget to break even, suggesting a $112.5 million global target.

Given its opening and audience enthusiasm, a domestic total of $80-100 million and a worldwide gross of $120-150 million seem plausible by the end of its run.However, the crowded market and mixed reviews could cap its potential.

If it holds well, mimicking the original’s 5x multiplier, it could hit $140 million domestically. More conservatively, a 3x-4x multiplier, common for comedies, points to $85-115 million domestically and $130-160 million worldwide. The international share (34.9%) may grow as markets like Japan and Korea open, but the film’s reliance on nostalgia could limit its overseas appeal compared to action-heavy competitors.

Can Freakier Friday Bounce Back?

Freakier Friday’s opening weekend may not have set the box office on fire, but its strong audience scores and nostalgic pull give it a fighting chance.

The film’s success will hinge on word-of-mouth from families and millennials, as well as its ability to hold screens against incoming releases.

Some Closing Thoughts:

While it faces an uphill battle in a crowded market, the return of Curtis and Lohan is a draw that could keep it afloat.

Fans eager to see where this body-swap saga goes next should catch it in theaters while it’s still swapping hearts and laughs.

Stay tuned to this space to find out how does this body swap comedy fares at the ticket counters over time!