Jurassic World Rebirth’s Opening Weekend Box Office Projections: Will Dinosaurs Roar or Stumble in 2025?

Jurassic World Rebirth’s opening weekend box office projections have ignited excitement and debate as Universal’s reboot of the iconic franchise gears up for a July 2, 2025, release. Tracking estimates suggest a $115–$135 million domestic haul over a five-day Fourth of July weekend, with some conservative forecasts dipping to $90–$100 million, according to sources like Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter.

Starring Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, and Jonathan Bailey, this soft reboot aims to revive the Jurassic spark, but faces stiff competition and franchise fatigue. Below, we dissect the projections, analyze key factors, and explore whether Rebirth will dominate or falter at the summer box office.

Highlights of Jurassic World Rebirth’s Box Office Projections

• Five-Day Domestic Opening: Projected at $115–$135 million, potentially $90–$100 million per Universal’s conservative estimates.

• Release Strategy: Opens Wednesday, July 2, 2025, leveraging a five-day Fourth of July holiday weekend.

• Franchise Comparison: Likely the lowest Jurassic World opening, trailing Dominion ($145M, three-day) and Jurassic World ($208.8M, three-day).

• Budget: $180 million, significantly lower than Dominion ($265M) and Fallen Kingdom ($432M), needing ~$450M globally to profit.

• Audience Appeal: Strong interest from men and women under 25, per Deadline, with Fandango naming it the summer’s most anticipated film.

• Competition: Faces How to Train Your Dragon ($198M global opening) and upcoming Superman ($140–$185M projected) and Fantastic Four: First Steps.

What Are the Projected Opening Weekend Numbers for Jurassic World Rebirth?

Jurassic World Rebirth is tracking for a $115–$135 million domestic opening over its five-day holiday weekend, starting July 2, 2025, per Deadline’s three-week tracking. The Hollywood Reporter narrows this to $120–$125 million, while Universal and Amblin temper expectations, citing a possible $90–$100 million range.

This marks the second Jurassic film to open on a Wednesday, following Jurassic Park III’s $85M five-day debut in 2001. Despite the extended weekend, projections lag behind Jurassic World: Dominion’s $145M three-day opening in 2022 and Fallen Kingdom’s $148M in 2018, with the 2015 Jurassic World towering at $208.8M. Posts on X reflect mixed sentiment, with some users predicting a sub-$100M start due to lukewarm presales.

How Does Rebirth Compare to Previous Jurassic World Films?

The Jurassic World trilogy set a high bar: 2015’s Jurassic World opened to $208.8M domestically, the franchise’s best and the seventh-highest domestic debut ever. Fallen Kingdom (2018) grossed $148M, and Dominion (2022) earned $145M, both over three-day weekends.

Rebirth’s $115–$135M five-day projection, even at the high end, signals a franchise low for the Jurassic World sub-series, though it outpaces the original Jurassic Park trilogy’s best (The Lost World at $72.1M).

The lower $180M budget—compared to Dominion’s $265M and Fallen Kingdom’s $432M—offers a silver lining, requiring only ~$450M globally to break even, far less than Fallen Kingdom’s $1B threshold. However, Rebirth’s Wednesday opening and holiday boost may not close the gap with its predecessors.

Why Might Rebirth’s Opening Weekend Underperform?

Several factors could cap Rebirth’s opening. First, franchise fatigue looms: Dominion’s 29% Rotten Tomatoes score and mixed fan reception (evident in X posts calling it a “bridge burner”) may dampen enthusiasm.

Second, the summer box office is crowded, with How to Train Your Dragon posting a $198M global debut and Lilo & Stitch nearing $858M worldwide, per Deadline. Superman (projected $140–$185M) and Fantastic Four: First Steps loom in mid-July, potentially siphoning audiences.

Third, Rebirth lacks IMAX screens, a key revenue driver, due to competition. Marketing emphasizes a return to Jurassic Park’s roots, but X users note trailers haven’t sparked widespread confidence, suggesting reliance on walk-up sales over presales.

What Are the Strengths Driving Rebirth’s Box Office Potential?

Despite challenges, Rebirth has notable strengths. Its $180M budget lowers the financial risk, needing only $450M globally to profit, a mark all Jurassic World films have surpassed. The star-studded cast—Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, and Jonathan Bailey—appeals broadly, with Deadline reporting strong interest from men and women under 25.

Fandango’s “most anticipated summer film” status signals robust awareness, and the Fourth of July weekend typically boosts family attendance. Director Gareth Edwards (Godzilla, Rogue One) and writer David Koepp (Jurassic Park) lend credibility, promising a fresh, horror-tinged take.

If word-of-mouth is strong, Rebirth could exceed projections, potentially nearing Dominion’s $145M range in the final weeks of its campaign.

How Will Competition and Market Trends Impact Rebirth?

The 2025 summer box office is a battleground. How to Train Your Dragon’s $114.1M international opening and Lilo & Stitch’s global dominance ($858M) show families are spending, but Rebirth must compete for premium screens.

Superman’s $140–$185M projected opening on July 11 and Fantastic Four: First Steps later in July could overshadow Rebirth’s legs, especially if presales for those superhero films (already crashing ticket sites) outpace Rebirth’s slower walk-up model.

Puck News tracking shows Rebirth leading in awareness (67) and interest (60), but Superman’s trailer buzz (250M views in 24 hours) poses a threat. Economic inflation, noted on X, may also limit discretionary spending, pressuring Rebirth to deliver a must-see experience.

What’s the Financial Outlook for Rebirth’s Opening?

Assuming a $120–$125M five-day domestic opening, Rebirth could gross $50–$60M internationally over the same period, based on Dominion’s 60/40 domestic-to-international split.

This yields a $170–$185M global debut, solid but below Dominion’s $255M global start. With a $180M budget and ~$100M in global marketing, Rebirth needs $450M worldwide to break even. Theatrical revenue splits (50% domestic, 40% international) suggest a $120M domestic opening nets ~$60M, with $50–$60M from overseas, covering a third of costs upfront.

Strong holiday turnout and positive audience reception (if reviews improve on Dominion’s 29%) could push Rebirth toward $700M–$1B globally, though X users doubt a billion-dollar haul without stellar word-of-mouth.

Some Closing Thoughts

Jurassic World Rebirth’s opening weekend projections of $115–$135M domestically signal a robust but cautious start for Universal’s dino reboot. While the lower $180M budget and star power provide a safety net, competition, franchise fatigue, and limited premium screens pose risks.

The Fourth of July weekend offers a chance to capitalize on family audiences, but Rebirth must overcome Dominion’s baggage and rival blockbusters to reclaim the franchise’s box office throne.

With three weeks left to build buzz, Edwards’ vision and Johansson’s draw could yet spark a prehistoric comeback—or leave Rebirth as a footnote in the Jurassic saga.