Karate Kid: Legends Opening Weekend Projections: Will It Crane-Kick to Box Office Glory?

The Karate Kid: Legends Opening Weekend Projections have sparked excitement among fans eager to see if this nostalgic martial arts sequel can deliver a knockout punch at the box office. Released on May 30, 2025, Karate Kid: Legends brings together franchise veterans Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan alongside newcomer Ben Wang.

Initial forecasts suggested a promising debut, but recent data paints a more complex picture. This article dives into the projections, competition, and factors influencing the film’s opening weekend performance, offering insights for fans and industry watchers alike.

What Were the Initial Karate Kid: Legends Opening Weekend Projections?

Early projections for Karate Kid: Legends were optimistic, with analysts estimating a domestic opening weekend gross of $25 million to $35 million, and some even speculating as high as $45 million.

These figures positioned the film as a potential second- or third-place contender, buoyed by the franchise’s legacy and the popularity of Netflix’s Cobra Kai series, which concluded its six-season run earlier in 2025. The film’s modest $45 million production budget further suggested a path to profitability with a solid debut.

However, as the release date approached, tracking data adjusted expectations downward. By late May, projections settled closer to $25 million to $30 million, with some sources like Polymarket favoring an opening below $20 million. This shift reflected challenges like stiff competition and shifting audience sentiment, which we’ll explore below.

How Did Karate Kid: Legends Perform on Its Opening Day?

On its opening day, Karate Kid: Legends earned $7.5 million, including $2.3 million from Thursday previews, across 3,809 theaters. This figure fell short of the hoped-for $25 million weekend debut, prompting revised projections of $21 million to $23 million for the three-day frame. Some rival studios estimated an even lower range, closer to $18 million to $19 million.

Despite the underwhelming start, the film received positive audience feedback, earning an “A-” CinemaScore and a 90% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. This suggests that while the film resonated with Karate Kid fans, it struggled to attract a broader audience, limiting its box office potential.

Why Did Karate Kid: Legends Underperform Expectations?

Several factors contributed to Karate Kid: Legends falling below initial projections. First, it faced fierce competition from holdovers like Disney’s Lilo & Stitch, which grossed $63 million in its second weekend, and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which added $27.3 million. Both films dominated family and action audiences, respectively, overshadowing Legends despite its PG-13 appeal.

Second, the success of Cobra Kai on Netflix may have inadvertently conditioned fans to consume Karate Kid content at home rather than in theaters. Negative online chatter also hurt, with some fans expressing skepticism about the film’s ability to match the franchise’s earlier highs. Comments like “the story is same as every Karate Kid film” reflected a lack of novelty.

Finally, mixed critical reviews, with a 59% Rotten Tomatoes score, didn’t help. While audiences enjoyed the nostalgia of seeing Macchio’s Daniel LaRusso and Chan’s Mr. Han mentor Ben Wang’s Li Fong, critics found the formula familiar, potentially deterring casual moviegoers.

How Does Karate Kid: Legends Compare to Past Franchise Entries?

To understand Karate Kid: Legends’ performance, it’s useful to compare it to previous franchise entries. The 2010 Karate Kid reboot, starring Jackie Chan and Jaden Smith, opened to a robust $55.7 million domestically and grossed $359 million worldwide, setting a high bar.

In contrast, Legends’ projected $21 million debut is significantly lower, reflecting a decline in theatrical draw.

Other nostalgia-driven films offer context. For example, 2016’s Ghostbusters opened to $46 million, while 2024’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice soared to $111 million. Legends’ performance aligns more closely with smaller-scale reboots like 2018’s The Predator ($24.6 million opening).

The data suggests that while nostalgia can drive interest, it’s not a guaranteed box office win without broader appeal.

What Are the Global Prospects for Karate Kid: Legends?

Internationally, Karate Kid: Legends has shown modest promise, earning $26 million across 43 markets by June 1, 2025, with key contributions from the UK ($3.4 million) and Germany ($2.2 million). With 40% of territories, including Australia, Italy, and Japan, yet to open, the film’s global tally could grow.

The film’s $47 million worldwide gross after its opening weekend provides a foundation for potential profitability, given its low budget. However, it’s unlikely to match the 2010 reboot’s global success unless international markets significantly overperform.

Can Karate Kid: Legends Recover and Succeed Long-Term?

Despite its soft opening, Karate Kid: Legends has factors in its favor for a respectable run. Its $45 million budget means it doesn’t need blockbuster numbers to break even. Positive audience reactions, particularly from kids who gave it five stars on PostTrak, could drive word-of-mouth as schools let out for summer.

The lack of direct family-targeted competition until mid-June, when How to Train Your Dragon and Elio release, also provides a window for Legends to attract audiences. If it maintains modest weekly holds, it could approach $100 million domestically and $200 million globally, a win for Sony given the budget.

Some Closing Thoughts:

Karate Kid: Legends Opening Weekend Projections didn’t deliver the knockout blow some hoped for, but the film’s modest debut isn’t the end of its story. With a lean budget, strong audience scores, and international potential, it could still find its footing.

Fans of the franchise will likely enjoy the nostalgic return of Daniel LaRusso and Mr. Han, while newcomers may discover a fresh take on a classic tale.

As the summer box office heats up, Karate Kid: Legends remains a contender worth watching.

What did you think of the film? Share your thoughts in the comments below!