The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Box Office Projections Signal a Massive MCU Comeback

The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ box office projections are generating buzz as Marvel Studios prepares to launch its highly anticipated reboot of Marvel’s First Family on July 25, 2025.

Directed by Matt Shakman and featuring a powerhouse cast including Pedro Pascal as Reed Richards, Vanessa Kirby as Sue Storm, Joseph Quinn as Johnny Storm, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as Ben Grimm, the film is poised to be a major summer event.

Early estimates suggest a strong domestic opening, fueled by robust pre-sale tickets and a 1960s-inspired retro-futuristic aesthetic that’s capturing fans’ attention.

However, competition from James Gunn’s Superman, releasing just two weeks earlier, adds intrigue to the box office race. Here’s what the projections reveal about the MCU’s next big chapter.

Why Are Box Office Predictions So High?

Current projections estimate The Fantastic Four: First Steps will earn between $100 million and $155 million domestically during its opening weekend, with some sources like Box Office Theory citing a range of $125 million to $155 million.

These figures position the film as one of Marvel’s strongest late-summer debuts, potentially ranking among the top 15 MCU openings, behind heavyweights like Avengers: Endgame ($357 million) and Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260 million).

The film’s first-day pre-sales set a 2025 record on Fandango, outpacing all other releases until Superman overtook it, signaling intense fan interest.

The film’s vibrant marketing, including a trailer that garnered over 200 million views, has amplified anticipation. Disney’s strategic push, including a live-streamed “Blue Carpet Day” premiere on Disney+, further boosts visibility.

The absence of major tentpole competitors in the weeks following its release gives the film room to dominate premium screens like IMAX, especially during Superman’s third weekend.

How Does It Compare to Superman’s Projections?

The box office race between The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Superman is heating up, with Superman projected to open between $130 million and $171 million domestically on July 11, 2025.

While Superman has a two-week head start and strong pre-sale momentum, its projections have slightly dipped, giving Marvel’s reboot a chance to close the gap.

Box Office Theory notes that The Fantastic Four’s consistent tracking, bolstered by high initial interest, makes it a formidable contender. Some reports even suggest it could overtake Superman if word-of-mouth and reviews are strong.

Both films benefit from fan demand for fresh takes on iconic heroes, but The Fantastic Four’s connection to Avengers: Doomsday (set for December 2026) adds narrative weight, potentially drawing audiences eager to follow the MCU’s Phase Six arc.

The film’s $210 million to $250 million budget means it needs to gross at least $450 million to $500 million globally to break even, a target that seems achievable given its current trajectory.

What Challenges Could Impact Its Performance?

Despite the optimistic projections, The Fantastic Four: First Steps faces hurdles. The MCU’s 2025 releases, Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8 million opening) and Thunderbolts ($74.3 million opening), underperformed, raising concerns about superhero fatigue.

The film’s opening weekend estimates, while strong, fall short of 2024’s Deadpool & Wolverine ($211 million), the MCU’s biggest recent hit. Competition from Superman and other summer releases like Jurassic World: Rebirth could also limit its staying power.

Additionally, the Fantastic Four franchise has a rocky cinematic history, with the 2015 reboot bombing at $56.1 million domestically. Marvel must overcome this stigma, and early reviews will be critical in convincing general audiences.

Some Reddit users on r/boxoffice predict a $600 million to $800 million global run if the film is well-received, but a poorly received film could dip to $350 million to $450 million.

Can It Reach the $1 Billion Mark?

The question of whether The Fantastic Four: First Steps can hit $1 billion globally is a hot topic.

ScreenRant reports growing confidence in this milestone, driven by the film’s record-breaking pre-sales and its role as a pivotal MCU event leading into Avengers: Doomsday.

A projected domestic total of $277 million to $395 million suggests a strong foundation, and international markets could push it further if the film resonates.

Comparisons to Deadpool & Wolverine’s $1.3 billion run fuel optimism, but achieving this will depend on positive reviews and sustained audience interest.

The film’s unique 1960s setting, cosmic stakes with Ralph Ineson’s Galactus, and Julia Garner’s Silver Surfer add fresh appeal, potentially broadening its audience beyond Marvel’s core fanbase. However, it must navigate a crowded summer market and deliver a quality product to match the hype.

What’s at Stake for Marvel Studios?

The Fantastic Four: First Steps is a critical release for Marvel Studios, which needs a win after a challenging 2025. As the first film in Phase Six, it sets the stage for the MCU’s future, introducing characters who will anchor Avengers: Doomsday and Secret Wars.

Box office projections indicate it could outperform recent MCU entries like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4 million opening) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1 million opening), signaling a potential course correction for the franchise.

With a world premiere set for July 21, 2025, at the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion and a theatrical release four days later, the film is positioned as a summer blockbuster. Its success could redefine the Fantastic Four’s cinematic legacy and restore Marvel’s box office dominance.

Some Closing Thoughts:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps is shaping up to be a defining moment for the MCU, with box office projections pointing to a strong $100 million to $155 million domestic opening.

While challenges like superhero fatigue and competition from Superman loom, the film’s stellar cast, unique aesthetic, and narrative ties to future Avengers films give it a fighting chance to soar.

As Marvel’s First Family prepares to take their first steps, all eyes are on whether they can deliver a billion-dollar triumph.