Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction: Can It Soar Past $500 Million Worldwide?

Marvel’s Thunderbolts has stormed into theaters, captivating audiences with its ragtag team of antiheroes. As of the latest reports from Box Office Mojo, the film has grossed $174,007,728 domestically (48.9%) and $181,700,000 internationally (51.1%), totaling $355,707,728 worldwide.

But how far can this Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) entry climb by the end of its theatrical run? In this Thunderbolts box office prediction, we’ll analyze the film’s performance, explore key variables driving its success, and forecast its potential global haul.

What Has Driven Thunderbolts*’ Box Office Performance So Far?

Thunderbolts* kicked off with a solid $76 million domestic debut and $162.1 million globally, aligning closely with MCU films like Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75.3 million domestic opening) and Eternals ($71.2 million).

Its A- CinemaScore and 88% Rotten Tomatoes score signal strong audience and critic approval, fueling positive word-of-mouth. The film’s diverse cast, led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan, appeals to both MCU loyalists and casual viewers, while its May release slot—traditionally a summer blockbuster launchpad—has maximized visibility.

Internationally, the film has performed well in markets like China ($10.4 million opening) and the UK ($7.7 million), though it faced challenges in some European markets due to weather fluctuations.

The film’s $180 million production budget, plus an estimated $100 million in marketing, sets a break-even threshold of roughly $450 million (2.5x the budget). With $355.7 million already in the bank, Thunderbolts* is on track to surpass this mark, but its final tally depends on several factors.

How Does Thunderbolts* Compare to Other MCU Films?

To predict Thunderbolts’ ultimate box office, we can look at comparable MCU films. Shang-Chi grossed $432 million worldwide, with a 3x domestic multiple (final domestic gross divided by opening weekend).

Ant-Man and the Wasp, another B-tier character film, reached $623 million globally, bolstered by strong international legs. However, recent MCU entries like Captain America: Brave New World ($200.2 million domestic) and Eternals ($164.8 million domestic) struggled with steeper second-weekend drops (68% and 62%, respectively).

Thunderbolts’ second-weekend drop of 55.5% is more encouraging, suggesting better staying power. Its current domestic total of $174 million after several weeks indicates it could aim for a 2.5–3x multiple, potentially reaching $190–$225 million domestically. Internationally, its $181.7 million cume suggests it could climb to $250–$300 million if it maintains momentum in key markets like Latin America and Asia.

What Factors Could Boost Thunderbolts*’ Final Gross?

Several variables could propel Thunderbolts* to a higher worldwide total. Its lack of major competition until Final Destination: Bloodlines (May 16) and Memorial Day heavyweights like Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning gives it a clear runway.

The film’s positive reception, particularly among younger audiences (62% under 35) and women (38% gave it an A), could drive repeat viewings, especially during summer breaks when college students boost ticket sales.

The film’s narrative setup for Avengers: Doomsday and The Fantastic Four: First Steps adds stakes, encouraging fans to stay invested. Premium large-format screens (IMAX, PLF) continue to draw crowds, contributing to higher per-screen averages ($7,644 in its second weekend).

However, challenges like audience fatigue with superhero films and mixed European performance could cap its growth unless international markets rebound.

What Is the Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction?

Based on current trends, Thunderbolts* is likely to finish with $450–$550 million worldwide. A conservative estimate assumes a 2.5x domestic multiple ($190 million) and $260 million internationally, totaling $450 million.

An optimistic scenario, mirroring Shang-Chi’s 3x multiple, could push domestic earnings to $225 million and international to $300 million, hitting $525 million. Exceptional legs, akin to Ant-Man and the Wasp, could even flirt with $600 million, though this seems ambitious given recent MCU trends.

The film’s ability to sustain modest weekly drops (30–40%) and capitalize on summer moviegoing will be critical. If it crosses $500 million, it would outpace The Marvels ($206 million) and Eternals ($402 million), cementing its status as a mid-tier MCU success.

However, surpassing Deadpool & Wolverine’s $1.34 billion or Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’s $845 million is unlikely without extraordinary momentum.

Some Closing Thoughts: Can Thunderbolts* Redefine MCU’s Box Office Future?

Thunderbolts* has already proven it can hold its own in a competitive market, blending fresh characters with MCU connectivity. Its Thunderbolts box office prediction of $450–$550 million reflects a solid, if not spectacular, performance for a film about lesser-known heroes.

As Marvel navigates a post-Endgame landscape, the film’s success could signal a return to form, provided it maintains audience enthusiasm.

What do you think Thunderbolts* will gross worldwide? Share your predictions in the comments, and stay tuned for updates as its box office journey unfolds!