Thunderbolts Opening Day Box Office Prediction: Will Marvel’s Antiheroes Strike Gold?

Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is gearing up to kick off the 2025 summer movie season with a bang, but what can we expect from its opening day box office haul? As the final film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s (MCU) Phase Five, Thunderbolts* brings together a ragtag team of antiheroes led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan.

The Thunderbolts opening day box office prediction is generating buzz, with early estimates suggesting a solid but not spectacular debut. Let’s dive into the projections, factors influencing its performance, and whether this unconventional superhero flick can defy expectations.

What Are the Thunderbolts Opening Day Box Office Predictions?

Early box office projections for Thunderbolts* estimate a domestic opening weekend between $63 million and $85 million, with a target of around $70 million to $75 million.

Assuming a typical MCU opening day split (roughly 35-40% of the weekend total), the Thunderbolts opening day box office prediction lands in the $22 million to $30 million range domestically.

Globally, the film is eyeing a $160 million to $175 million opening weekend, with opening day contributing significantly in markets like China, the UK, and Australia, where it releases midweek.

These numbers, while respectable, are on the lower end for a summer MCU release. For comparison, Captain America: Brave New World opened to $88.8 million domestically in February 2025, and Deadpool & Wolverine soared to $211 million last year.

The modest projections have sparked debates about whether Thunderbolts* can overcome superhero fatigue and deliver a hit.

Why Are Thunderbolts’ Projections Softer Than Expected?

Several factors contribute to the cautious Thunderbolts opening day box office prediction. First, the film features lesser-known characters like Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes, and Red Guardian, who lack the star power of Iron Man or Spider-Man.

Many of these antiheroes appeared in supporting roles or Disney+ shows, which may not resonate with casual audiences.

Second, the MCU has faced challenges recently, with films like The Marvels ($46 million opening) and Captain America: Brave New World underperforming. Superhero fatigue and a crowded content slate have made audiences more selective.

Additionally, Thunderbolts* faces competition from May releases like Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Lilo & Stitch, which could split the box office.

Finally, the film’s $180 million production budget (plus $100 million in marketing) means it needs $500 million to $750 million globally to break even. Early ticket presales, at $12 million domestically, are softer than Captain America: Brave New World but ahead of Shang-Chi ($75.3 million opening).

Can Positive Buzz Boost Thunderbolts’ Opening Day?

Despite the modest projections, there’s reason for optimism. Early screenings and test audience reactions have been strong, with Disney insiders noting positive feedback. Exhibitors and rival studio execs have praised the film’s fresh tone, likening it to Guardians of the Galaxy for its mix of action, comedy, and heart.

The film’s 89% Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, higher than Captain America: Brave New World (48%) and Eternals (47%), could drive word-of-mouth. Director Jake Schreier’s unique vision, emphasizing practical effects and a grounded narrative, has fans excited. The cast’s connection to Avengers: Doomsday (set for 2026) also adds narrative weight, potentially drawing MCU diehards.

Social media sentiment is mixed but leans positive, with some fans predicting a sleeper hit if word-of-mouth takes off, similar to A Minecraft Movie’s $162 million debut despite low projections. Posts on X highlight excitement for Florence Pugh’s Yelena and the film’s “Suicide Squad-esque” vibe.

How Does Thunderbolts Compare to Other MCU Openings?

To put the Thunderbolts opening day box office prediction in context, let’s compare it to other MCU films:

• Deadpool & Wolverine (2024): $211 million opening weekend, ~$74 million opening day.

• Captain America: Brave New World (2025): $88.8 million weekend, ~$31 million opening day.

• Eternals (2021): $71.2 million weekend, ~$25 million opening day.

• The Marvels (2023): $46 million weekend, ~$16 million opening day.

Thunderbolts* is tracking above The Marvels but below Brave New World and pandemic-era releases like Shang-Chi ($75.3 million). Its opening day could surpass Eternals if positive reviews and lack of immediate competition (until mid-May) give it legs.

What Could Push Thunderbolts Beyond Projections?

Several wildcard factors could elevate Thunderbolts* above its current predictions. The film’s global rollout, starting midweek in key markets, could boost opening day numbers if international audiences show up. China, where MCU films have struggled recently, is a critical market to watch.

Marvel’s marketing, emphasizing the film’s edgy tone and star-studded cast, has been effective despite a lower budget than past MCU campaigns. The Super Bowl spot and A24-inspired trailer have generated buzz, potentially drawing non-MCU fans. If Thunderbolts* delivers a fun, emotionally resonant story, it could mirror Guardians of the Galaxy’s success and exceed expectations.

Will Thunderbolts Defy the Odds?

The Thunderbolts opening day box office prediction paints a picture of a film at a crossroads for Marvel Studios. While projections suggest a solid $22 million to $30 million domestic debut, the film’s success hinges on word-of-mouth, critical reception, and its ability to stand out in a competitive May.

Some Closing Thoughts:

With a talented cast, a fresh creative approach, and ties to the MCU’s future, Thunderbolts* has the potential to surprise like A Minecraft Movie did. However, it must overcome superhero fatigue and the absence of A-list heroes to truly shine.

As the summer box office kicks off, all eyes will be on whether this antihero adventure can spark a much-needed win for the MCU.

What do you think Thunderbolts* will earn on opening day? Share your predictions below!