Thunderbolts* Opening Weekend Box Office Projections: Can Marvel’s Anti-Heroes Strike Gold?

Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is gearing up to kick off the 2025 summer movie season, and all eyes are on its box office potential. The Thunderbolts opening weekend box office projections are sparking buzz, with estimates suggesting a debut that could either solidify Marvel’s comeback or signal ongoing challenges for the MCU.

Set to release on May 2, 2025, this anti-hero team-up film promises a fresh twist on the superhero formula. But will it deliver the numbers Marvel hopes for? Let’s dive into the projections, the context, and what it all means for the MCU’s future.

What Are the Projected Earnings for Thunderbolts* Opening Weekend?

Early tracking for Thunderbolts* points to a domestic opening weekend in the range of $63 million to $85 million, with a target number around $70 million. While this figure is solid for most films, it’s considered modest for an MCU summer release.

For comparison, Captain America: Brave New World opened to $88.8 million domestically in February 2025, and Deadpool & Wolverine soared to $211.4 million last year. The Thunderbolts opening weekend box office projections* suggest a cautious optimism, with room for growth depending on audience reception.

Disney insiders remain upbeat, citing positive early screenings and exhibitor enthusiasm shown at CinemaCon. The film’s unique premise—an ensemble of morally complex characters like Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh) and Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan)—could drive word-of-mouth buzz, potentially pushing it past initial estimates.

Why Are Thunderbolts* Projections Lower Than Other MCU Films?

The Thunderbolts opening weekend box office projections* are tempered by several factors. Unlike marquee titles like Avengers: Doomsday or The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Thunderbolts* features lesser-known characters, many of whom were supporting players in previous MCU projects. Characters like Taskmaster (Black Widow) and John Walker (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier) don’t carry the same brand recognition as Iron Man or Spider-Man.

Additionally, recent MCU releases have shown mixed results. Films like The Marvels ($46 million opening) and Captain America: Brave New World ($188 million domestic total after five weeks) highlight a selective audience. With a reported $200 million production budget, Thunderbolts* may need $700-$750 million globally to break even, a tall order given current trends. Superhero fatigue and a crowded content landscape could also play a role.

Could Positive Buzz Boost Thunderbolts* Performance?

Despite the modest Thunderbolts opening weekend box office projections*, there’s potential for an upset. Marvel’s marketing has leaned into the film’s irreverent tone, drawing comparisons to Guardians of the Galaxy. A Super Bowl spot and an A24-inspired “pure cinema” trailer have generated fan excitement.

Disney reports strong responses from test screenings, and the cast’s confirmed roles in Avengers: Doomsday add narrative weight, making Thunderbolts* a must-see for MCU fans.

Historical data offers hope: A Minecraft Movie was projected at $80 million but opened to $162.7 million domestically, proving projections aren’t destiny. With minimal competition until mid-May releases like Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Thunderbolts* has a window to build momentum if word-of-mouth is strong.

How Does Thunderbolts* Fit Into Marvel’s 2025 Strategy?

The Thunderbolts opening weekend box office projections* come at a pivotal time for Marvel. After a lighter 2024 with only Deadpool & Wolverine in theaters, 2025 is a make-or-break year with Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps. As the final film of MCU’s Phase 5, Thunderbolts sets the stage for Phase 6’s multiverse saga, culminating in Avengers: Doomsday (May 2026).

Marvel’s choice of a May release—a slot historically reserved for heavyweights like The Avengers and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2—signals confidence. Breaking a 13-year trend of May sequels, Thunderbolts* as a non-sequel suggests Marvel sees franchise potential. If it resonates with audiences, it could mirror Guardians and spawn sequels.

What Challenges Might Thunderbolts* Face at the Box Office?

The road ahead isn’t without hurdles. The Thunderbolts opening weekend box office projections* reflect a market wary of MCU oversaturation. Posts on X note fan concerns about another “soft” MCU debut, with some citing advance ticket sales as sluggish. A selective moviegoing public, burned by divisive releases like Eternals ($71.2 million opening), may wait for reviews before committing.

The film’s reliance on characters from underperforming projects (Black Widow, for example, and most recently, Captain America: Brave New World) could limit its draw. Plus, with a high budget and marketing costs, profitability hinges on global performance, where international markets often yield lower studio returns.

Some Closing Thoughts:

As Thunderbolts* nears its May 2 release, its opening weekend will be a litmus test for Marvel’s ability to pivot from past stumbles. The Thunderbolts opening weekend box office projections* of $63-$85 million suggest a respectable but not spectacular start.

Yet, with a talented cast, a bold premise, and Marvel’s marketing muscle, there’s room to defy expectations.

If audiences embrace this dysfunctional team of anti-heroes, Thunderbolts* could spark a new MCU franchise and set a strong tone for 2025.

Keep an eye on social media and early reviews—they’ll likely decide if this film soars or stumbles.