Thunderbolts* Opening Weekend Box Office Projections: Will Marvel’s Anti-Heroes Strike Gold?

Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is set to electrify theaters on May 2, 2025, and the opening weekend box office projections for this film are sparking intense buzz. Early estimates suggest a domestic debut between $63 million and $85 million, with a global haul potentially reaching $175 million.

But can this ragtag team of anti-heroes, led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan, defy modest expectations and deliver a blockbuster hit? Let’s dive into the numbers, context, and what it all means for the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU).

What are the Thunderbolts Opening Weekend Box Office Projections?

Early tracking for Thunderbolts* points to a domestic opening weekend of $63 million to $85 million, with a target around $70-$75 million. Globally, projections estimate $160 million to $175 million, including $90-$100 million from international markets.

These figures, while solid for most films, are modest for an MCU summer release, especially compared to Deadpool & Wolverine’s $211.4 million domestic debut or Captain America: Brave New World’s $88.8 million.

Disney remains optimistic, citing positive early screenings and exhibitor enthusiasm at CinemaCon. The film’s unique premise—a team of morally complex characters like Yelena Belova and Bucky Barnes—could drive word-of-mouth buzz, potentially pushing it past initial estimates.

Why Are Thunderbolts* Projections Lower Than Other MCU Films?

The Thunderbolts Opening Weekend Box Office Projections* are tempered by several factors. Unlike marquee titles like Avengers: Doomsday, Thunderbolts* features lesser-known characters, many introduced in underperforming projects like Black Widow or Disney+ series such as The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. This lack of star power, compared to Iron Man or Spider-Man, could limit its draw.

Additionally, the MCU has faced challenges recently, with films like The Marvels ($46.1 million domestic opening) and Captain America: Brave New World ($412 million global total) underperforming. Superhero fatigue and a crowded content slate may also contribute to cautious audience turnout.

How Does Thunderbolts* Fit Into Marvel’s 2025 Strategy?

As the final film of MCU’s Phase 5, Thunderbolts* sets the stage for Phase 6’s multiverse saga, culminating in Avengers: Doomsday (May 2026). Marvel’s choice of a May release—a slot historically reserved for heavyweights like The Avengers—signals confidence. Breaking a 13-year trend of May sequels, Thunderbolts* as a non-sequel suggests Marvel sees franchise potential.

Positive early reactions, with reviews at 89% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, bolster hopes. The film’s connection to Avengers: Doomsday, with several cast members reprising roles, could also drive interest. If it resonates, Thunderbolts* could mirror Guardians of the Galaxy and spark a new MCU franchise.

What Challenges Might Thunderbolts* Face at the Box Office?

Despite optimism, Thunderbolts* faces hurdles. Its $180 million production budget, plus $100 million in marketing, means it needs $500-$600 million globally to break even. Recent MCU films have struggled to reach this threshold, with Captain America: Brave New World tapping out at $414 million worldwide.

Competition is another factor. While Thunderbolts* has a clear runway until Final Destination: Bloodlines on May 16, late May brings Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Lilo & Stitch. Soft presales, currently at $12 million in the U.S. and Canada, also suggest a slow start.

Could Thunderbolts* Defy Expectations?

Projections aren’t destiny. A Minecraft Movie exceeded its $80 million forecast with a $162.7 million domestic debut, proving word-of-mouth can shift outcomes. Thunderbolts*’ trailers, praised for their action-comedy mix and practical effects, have generated fan excitement. The cast, including Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, and David Harbour, plus the introduction of Sentry (Lewis Pullman), could draw crowds.

Critics like The Hollywood Reporter’s David Rooney have called it “fresh and soulful,” suggesting it could resonate beyond MCU superfans. If audiences embrace this anti-hero team-up, Thunderbolts* could outperform its Thunderbolts Opening Weekend Box Office Projections* and set a strong tone for Marvel’s 2025.

The Thunderbolts Opening Weekend Box Office Projections* paint a picture of cautious optimism for Marvel Studios. While the $70-$75 million domestic and $175 million global estimates are modest for an MCU film, strong reviews, a talented cast, and a fresh premise could propel it to exceed expectations.

Some Closing Thoughts:

As Thunderbolts* kicks off the summer box office, its performance will be a litmus test for Marvel’s ability to pivot from recent stumbles and reignite fan passion.

Keep an eye on social media and early reviews—they’ll likely decide if this dysfunctional team soars or stumbles.