Weapons Box Office Prediction: How High Can Julia Garner’s Horror Hit Climb?

Julia Garner’s Weapons has taken the box office by storm, with a Weapons box office prediction already pointing to a massive global haul.

In just one week, the Zach Cregger-directed horror thriller has grossed $91,998,630 worldwide, including $55,498,630 domestically (60.3%) and $36,500,000 internationally (39.7%).

With a $38 million budget, the film is already profitable and showing strong legs. But how much can Weapons earn by the end of its theatrical run? Let’s break down its current trajectory, compare it to similar films, and speculate on its potential final tally.

Highlights:

• Current Global Total: $91,998,630 in one week, with $55,498,630 domestic and $36,500,000 international.

• Opening Weekend Strength: $43.5 million domestic debut, outpacing Freakier Friday ($29 million).

• Critical Acclaim: 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and A- CinemaScore fuel word-of-mouth.

• Budget Efficiency: Already surpassed its $38 million break-even point.

• Projected Second Weekend: Estimated $25 million domestically, pushing past $100 million globally.

How Does Weapons’ Opening Compare to Other Horror Hits?

Weapons kicked off with a $43.5 million domestic opening, the third-largest horror debut of 2025, trailing Final Destination: Bloodlines ($51.6 million) and Sinners ($48 million).

Its $71.8 million global opening is a standout for an original horror film, surpassing M3GAN ($59 million) and Evil Dead Rise ($67 million) in like-for-like markets. Posts on X and industry reports suggest it’s already hit $100.6 million globally, with $59.9 million domestic and $40.7 million international, doubling the total run of Cregger’s Barbarian ($45.3 million).

This strong start, paired with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score and an A- CinemaScore, mirrors the audience love for Sinners (A CinemaScore) and outshines Final Destination: Bloodlines (B+).

Horror films with similar buzz, like Get Out ($255 million worldwide) and Smile ($217 million), show Weapons could sustain momentum through word-of-mouth, especially among younger male audiences under 35.

What Factors Are Driving Its Success?

Several elements are propelling Weapons toward a potentially massive run. Its $38 million budget, modest for a star-studded film featuring Julia Garner, Josh Brolin, and Benedict Wong, ensures profitability even with marketing costs.

The film’s creative marketing, including a viral fake website (Maybrookmissing.com) and cryptic social media teases, has sparked buzz, with pre-sales outpacing 28 Years Later and Longlegs.

The R-rated horror genre is thriving in 2025, with Weapons joining Sinners ($365.9 million) and Final Destination: Bloodlines ($285.3 million) as one of only four horror films to cross $100 million this year.

Its appeal to cinephiles and general audiences, boosted by premium IMAX and PLF screens, is driving higher ticket prices. Posts on X project a $25 million second weekend domestically, indicating minimal drop-off and strong audience retention.

Can Weapons Sustain Its Momentum?

Horror films often face steep second-weekend drops, but Weapons is poised to buck the trend. Its A- CinemaScore and near-universal critical acclaim suggest staying power akin to Sinners, which dropped only 35% in its second weekend.

If Weapons follows a similar trajectory, it could earn $25-$30 million domestically in its second frame, pushing its domestic total to $80-$85 million by August 17, 2025. Internationally, its $40.7 million haul across 72 markets, with strong performances in the UK ($3.6 million) and Mexico ($2.7 million), points to continued growth in Europe and Asia.

Comparing to Smile ($105 million domestic, $217 million worldwide) and M3GAN ($95 million domestic, $180 million worldwide), Weapons could aim for a domestic total of $100-$120 million and an international haul of $80-$100 million.

A key factor is its lack of direct competition until Nobody 2 and Highest 2 Lowest arrive, giving it a clear runway through mid-August.

What’s a Realistic Final Box Office Prediction?

Based on its current trajectory, Weapons is on track for a global total of $170-$200 million by the end of its theatrical run. Posts on X estimate a $170 million finish, while some analysts project up to $200 million if word-of-mouth continues to drive ticket sales.

A conservative estimate assumes a 40% second-weekend drop to $25 million domestically, followed by steady declines over 6-8 weeks, yielding $110-$130 million domestic.

Internationally, a 2.5x multiplier from its current $40.7 million could push it to $90-$100 million, especially with expansion into additional markets like Australia and New Zealand.

An optimistic scenario sees it matching Smile’s 3x multiplier, hitting $150 million domestically and $100-$120 million internationally for a $250-$270 million global total. This would place it among the top original horror films of the decade, alongside Sinners and Smile. However, school resumptions in the U.S. (30% of schools by August 11) may temper Sunday drops, slightly limiting domestic growth.

Could Weapons Spark a Franchise?

With Weapons already doubling Barbarian’s global gross and earning critical praise, speculation about a sequel is heating up.

Zach Cregger’s rising star power, bolstered by his upcoming Resident Evil reboot, suggests Warner Bros. may greenlight a Weapons 2 if the film hits $200 million.

Its non-linear narrative and mysterious ending leave room for expansion, much like Sinners sparked sequel talks. Warner Bros.’ hot streak, with six films opening above $40 million in 2025, positions Weapons as a cornerstone of their horror slate.

Ultimately, Weapons is a rare original horror hit that’s rewriting expectations. Its final tally will depend on sustained audience enthusiasm and international expansion, but a $170-$200 million global finish is a safe bet, with potential to climb higher if it maintains its frightful grip on theaters.

Some Closing Thoughts: Why Weapons Is a Must-See Box Office Beast

Weapons is a horror juggernaut that’s rewriting the rules for original genre films. With Julia Garner’s electrifying performance, Zach Cregger’s bold vision, and a marketing campaign that’s got everyone talking, it’s no surprise this thriller is on pace for a $170-$200 million global finish, with potential to climb higher.

As it continues to terrify and captivate audiences, Weapons is cementing its place as one of 2025’s defining cinematic experiences.

Don’t sleep on this one; it’s a scream worth catching in theaters.