Will Ballerina Dance to Profitability? Decoding Ballerina Box Office Projections

The John Wick spinoff Ballerina, starring Ana de Armas, has kicked off its theatrical run with a global gross of $57,106,148, according to Box Office Mojo. Broken down, Ballerina's box office projections show $31,106,148 from domestic markets (54.5%) and $26,000,000 internationally (45.5%).

While these figures reflect a modest start, they raise questions about the film’s long-term performance. With a $90 million budget and high expectations, what do these early numbers suggest for Ballerina’s overall box office run? Let’s explore the factors shaping its trajectory and predict its final gross.

Highlights of Ballerina’s Box Office Outlook

• Current Worldwide Gross: $57,106,148 ($31.1M domestic, $26M international).

• Opening Weekend: $25 million domestically, below $30–$35 million projections.

• Budget: $90 million, plus $45 million estimated marketing costs.

• Break-Even Point: Needs ~$180 million globally to turn a profit.

• Audience Reception: A- CinemaScore, 94% Rotten Tomatoes audience score.

• Domestic Projection: Estimated $70–$90 million by end of run.

• Global Projection: Likely $140–$170 million, pending key market openings.

What Does the Opening Weekend Suggest for Domestic Performance?

Ballerina’s $25 million domestic opening is the lowest debut in the John Wick franchise since the original’s $14.4 million in 2014, which adjusts to ~$20 million today. Compared to John Wick: Chapter 4’s $73.8 million opening, this 65% drop signals a challenge.

The absence of Keanu Reeves as the lead and competition from Lilo & Stitch ($32.5M) and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning ($15M) hurt its start.

However, positive audience feedback offers hope. The film’s A- CinemaScore and 94% audience score suggest strong word-of-mouth, which could drive steady legs. Weekday numbers show resilience, with $3 million on Tuesday (up from $2.05M Monday) due to discounted tickets.

Industry models, like those from The Numbers, predict a domestic finish of ~$70 million based on current trends, though a hold above 40% in its second weekend could push it toward $80–$90 million.

How Will International Markets Shape the Global Total?

Internationally, Ballerina’s $26 million from 82 markets is underwhelming compared to John Wick: Chapter 4’s $64 million debut. Strong openings in the UK, Mexico, and China ($2.9M) are offset by weaker performances elsewhere.

Upcoming releases in Italy and Japan could add $10–$15 million, but the film’s reliance on Ana de Armas without Reeves’ star power limits its appeal in John Wick-heavy markets.

Current projections estimate a global finish of $140–$150 million, with potential to hit $160–$170 million if international markets overperform. Lionsgate’s pre-sales of foreign rights reduce financial risk, covering roughly two-thirds of the budget, but theatrical revenue alone may not reach the $180 million needed to break even. Home market sales, where John Wick: Chapter 4 earned $100 million domestically, could bridge the gap.

Can Positive Reception Offset the Soft Start?

Despite its sluggish debut, Ballerina’s critical and audience reception is a bright spot. With a 75% “Certified Fresh” Rotten Tomatoes score and strong fan approval, the film has the potential for a longer run.

Posts on X praise its action sequences and de Armas’ performance, though some fans lament Reeves’ limited role. This mixed sentiment could cap its appeal but hasn’t deterred core audiences.

The film’s R-rating and male-skewing demographic (63% male, 49% over 25) overlap with Mission: Impossible 8, which grossed $40.7 million internationally during Ballerina’s debut.

Yet, its ability to hold screens against upcoming releases like F1 and Jurassic World Rebirth will determine its staying power. A 40–50% drop in its second weekend could signal a path to $80 million domestically, boosting global prospects.

What Role Does the Budget Play in Profitability?

At $90 million, Ballerina’s budget exceeds the first three John Wick films but is modest compared to Chapter 4’s $100 million. Marketing costs, estimated at $45 million, push the break-even point to ~$180 million globally.

Current box office projections of $140–$170 million suggest a theatrical loss, but Lionsgate’s strategy of offsetting costs through pre-sales mitigates this.

The John Wick franchise’s strong home media and streaming performance offers a safety net. If Ballerina follows Chapter 4’s $100 million domestic VOD revenue, it could turn a profit post-theatrical. However, a global gross below $150 million would limit its viability as a franchise starter, potentially impacting plans for further spinoffs.

Will Ballerina Sustain the John Wick Legacy?

Ballerina’s box office projections paint a cautious picture. A domestic finish of $70–$90 million and a global total of $140–$170 million would mark a solid but unspectacular run, falling short of the franchise’s $440.2 million peak with Chapter 4.

While Lionsgate’s financial strategy and the film’s positive reception provide a buffer, its reliance on secondary markets and home media for profitability underscores the challenge of expanding the John Wick universe without Reeves.

The film’s performance highlights the franchise’s dependence on its iconic lead, but de Armas’ star power and upcoming market openings offer a chance to close the gap. Whether Ballerina can pirouette past its soft start depends on sustained audience interest and minimal competition.

For now, its box office trajectory suggests a respectable, if not blockbuster, addition to the John Wick saga.

Some Closing Thoughts:

Ballerina’s early box office figures signal a bumpy road ahead, but strong reviews and strategic financial moves keep it in the game.

Will it find its footing and prove spinoffs can thrive without Keanu Reeves? Share your predictions for Ballerina’s final gross in the comments!