Will Mission: Impossible: The Final Reckoning Make A Billion Dollars at the Box Office?

Tom Cruise’s latest high-octane adventure, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, has stormed the box office, but will Mission: Impossible: The Final Reckoning make a billion dollars globally? With a hefty $400 million budget and fierce competition from Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch, the eighth installment in the iconic franchise faces a steep climb.

As of May 26, 2025, Box Office Mojo reports the film has grossed $77 million domestically (37.7%), $127 million internationally (62.3%), and $204 million worldwide. This article dives into the odds of reaching that coveted billion-dollar mark, analyzing current performance, market dynamics, and key variables shaping its trajectory.

Can Mission: Impossible Break Franchise Records?

The Mission: Impossible franchise has been a box office juggernaut for nearly three decades, with Mission: Impossible – Fallout (2018) holding the series’ highest global gross at $791 million.

The Final Reckoning has already set a franchise record for the biggest opening weekend, pulling in $190 million globally through Sunday, May 25, 2025, and an estimated $204 million including the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. This surpasses Fallout’s $61.2 million domestic opening, with The Final Reckoning earning $63 million over three days and $77 million over four.

However, the film’s $400 million production budget—bloated by COVID protocols, Hollywood strikes, and inflation—means it needs to gross roughly $800 million to $1 billion to break even, depending on marketing costs and revenue splits. Posts on X reflect optimism, with some fans hoping it nears $1 billion, but others note the franchise’s historical ceiling around $500–$800 million globally.

How Does Lilo & Stitch’s Dominance Impact Its Chances?

Disney’s Lilo & Stitch has been a box office titan, grossing $341.7 million globally in its opening weekend, including $183 million domestically.

This family-friendly remake has outpaced The Final Reckoning by more than double domestically, capitalizing on nostalgia and a broad demographic appeal (62% female audience, 79% under 35). Its record-breaking Memorial Day performance, surpassing Top Gun: Maverick’s $160 million, has hogged premium screens and family audiences.

The Final Reckoning relies heavily on older audiences (62% over 35, 29% over 55) and male viewers (63%), which limits its overlap with Lilo & Stitch’s demographic. However, the lack of Imax screens (secured by Lilo & Stitch) and competition for theater space could cap its domestic growth.

Internationally, The Final Reckoning has performed strongly in markets like Korea ($12.7 million) and Japan ($11 million), but Lilo & Stitch’s $158.7 million overseas haul shows it’s a global force.

What Role Do Audience Reception and Critics Play?

Critical and audience reception is pivotal for a film’s box office longevity. The Final Reckoning has an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score, the lowest since Mission: Impossible III (2006), with some critics citing an overly complex plot and reliance on fan-service callbacks. Still, audiences have given it a 93% audience score and an A- CinemaScore, signaling strong word-of-mouth potential.

Posts on X highlight enthusiasm for Tom Cruise’s death-defying stunts, like biplane and submarine sequences, which could drive repeat viewings. The film’s “final chapter” marketing adds emotional weight, potentially boosting turnout among longtime fans. However, Lilo & Stitch’s A CinemaScore and universal appeal may sustain its lead, especially as summer vacations begin.

How Will International Markets Influence the Billion-Dollar Goal?

International markets account for 62.3% of The Final Reckoning’s current gross, with $127 million from 64 territories through May 25. The film has yet to open in China (set for May 30), a crucial market where Lilo & Stitch has already gained traction.

The franchise’s historical strength overseas—Fallout earned $570 million internationally—suggests potential for growth, but The Final Reckoning is only 7% ahead of Dead Reckoning’s international opening.

Key markets like the UK, France, and Australia have performed well, but Lilo & Stitch’s dominance in family-heavy regions like Mexico and Brazil could limit The Final Reckoning’s share. A strong China opening and sustained performance in Europe and Asia are critical to pushing the film toward $600–$700 million internationally, a necessary benchmark for a billion-dollar total.

What Are the Historical Trends for Mission: Impossible?

The Mission: Impossible series has never crossed $1 billion globally. Fallout’s $791 million remains the high, while Dead Reckoning (2023) disappointed with $570 million, partly due to Barbenheimer competition. The franchise typically sees a 3.5x multiplier from its opening weekend, which would project The Final Reckoning to around $700 million globally based on its $204 million start.

However, Memorial Day’s long weekend and minimal direct competition in the action genre could extend its theatrical run. Upcoming blockbusters like Superman and Jurassic World Rebirth in June and July may crowd theaters, but The Final Reckoning’s Imax exclusivity for three weeks could bolster premium ticket sales.

Can Marketing and Star Power Push It Over the Line?

Tom Cruise’s relentless promotion, including high-profile premieres in Cannes, Seoul, and Tokyo, has kept The Final Reckoning in the spotlight. His personal engagement, like chatting with theater staff, amplifies buzz. Paramount’s marketing emphasizes spectacle and finality, appealing to both casual viewers and die-hard fans.

Yet, the film’s $400 million budget—among the highest ever—raises the stakes. Analysts suggest it needs to outgross Fallout by a wide margin to turn a profit, a tall order given the franchise’s consistent but not explosive growth. Lilo & Stitch’s leaner $100 million budget and massive opening highlight Disney’s efficiency, putting pressure on Paramount to maximize The Final Reckoning’s run.

Some Closing Thoughts: Will It Reach the Billion-Dollar Mark?

So, will Mission: Impossible: The Final Reckoning make a billion dollars? The odds are slim but not impossible. Its record-breaking opening, strong international performance, and Cruise’s star power provide a solid foundation.

However, Lilo & Stitch’s dominance, a high budget, and the franchise’s historical ceiling around $800 million pose significant hurdles. A 3.5x multiplier projects a $700–$750 million global total, but a stellar China opening, sustained word-of-mouth, and premium format sales could push it closer to $900 million.

The summer box office looks robust, with The Final Reckoning benefiting from a rebounding theatrical market. Yet, to hit $1 billion, it must defy franchise trends and outmaneuver Lilo & Stitch’s family-driven momentum.

For now, Ethan Hunt’s final mission is a box office win, but the billion-dollar target remains a high-stakes challenge.